What's Happening in the Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market (May 2023)?
"What's happening in the Portland, OR Metro Market right now?" Is the market down? Are prices falling? First, let's look at some data from the past to give us some context for what we're looking at in 2023 (sourced from this fun interactive site): Between Q1 2017-Q1 2022, home prices in Oregon grew 63.1%! Between Q1 2021-Q1 2022, home prices in Oregon grew 18%! *Nationally, home prices have grown at an average rate of 4.4% per year since 1991. As you can see, we clearly have exceeded that average during the 2020-2022 buying surge. In the Portland Metro area, here's a snapshot of what is happening according to theRMLS (Regional Multiple Listing Service) from April 2023: Median Sale Price is down 5.4% ($560,000 in April 2022 down to $530,000 in April 2023) Inventory is up 1.1 months over April 2022 (was 0.8 months in April 2022 vs. 1.9 in April 2023)* Total Market Time is up 26 days over April 2022 (was 21 days in April 2022 vs. 47 days in April 2023) *The RMLS has adjusted the inventory number to include only homes that are move-in ready, bringing that inventory number DOWN to 1.4 months. In our area we have a lot of homes that are listed but not yet under construction. What does all this mean to you, as a consumer? Median Sale Price being down could come as a result of many factors, including sellers lowering their sale price or even offering to pay buyer closing costs. Since Total Market Time is up, that means it's taking longer to sell homes than it did a year ago. Motivated sellers may be lowering the price in order to sell the home faster. Inventory is also up, which means there are more homes on the market today than there were a year ago. However, this number needs more explanation. In the real estate world, we consider anything over 6 months of inventory to be a buyer's market. Anything under 6 months would be a seller's market. Since we have 1.4 months of inventory, we are in a seller's market. Interest rates also play a part in why we have such low inventory. I have heard figures state that as many as 99% of all mortgage holders have an interest rate of 6% or less. More than half of those have an interest rate of less than 4%! Even if a move into a different home would make life more comfortable for some folks with a low interest rate (say, into a home that better suits their needs), many aren't seeing the value when their home mortgage cost would then increase substantially--double, even! Life events are still driving the real estate market. Life events mean people need to change their living arrangements, and then buy and/or sell a home. In my experience this year, that has absolutely been the case. While Portland does give us a good idea as a region, it's a much safer bet to look at your neck of the woods to get the best picture. If you'd like a quick analysis of what is happening in your neck of the woods, let's connect. I'm happy to do the research for you. Jennifer Schurter is a real estate agent and expert marketer serving the Greater Portland, Oregon Metro area and Willamette Valley of Oregon. If you're looking to get started on a journey to buying a home, selling a home, or investing in real estate assets, you may reach Jennifer at jen@jenschurter.com.
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They Did WHAT With Mortgages?
If you follow the news at all, or even just scroll social media on occasion, you've likely heard about the changes happening in the mortgage world. These headlines you have seen are not "new" news, and as a matter of fact we've known about this for many months. Not in the know? Here are a few samples of what the headlines have looked like recently: Why having good credit could cost you more on a home mortgage 'It's going to hit the consumer hard': Those with higher credit scores may pay higher mortgage fees How the US is subsidizing high-risk homebuyers — at the cost of those with good credit So what happened? I don't want to get political, but this news was picked up and spun faster than a Whirlpool spin cycle by many news outlets...and about 4 months late. This lead to a lot of confusion--not to mention misinformation--about what is actually going on. To help clarify things, I went straight to the source. I asked a couple lenders I know to give their take on what is happening. Take #1- "First, it is still better to have higher credit than lower. There is an absolute ton of misinformation swimming about. If you’ve got perfect credit, you’ll see a slight decrease in fee. If credit is really good but not super hot shot, your fee will go up slightly. If you have credit below 680, you’ll see your fees go down. This does make housing more affordable for scores below 680 but does charge borrowers with scores between 700-779 slightly more. The attached is a very simple example at the various credit scores using a purchase of $500k with 20% down." -Kelly Naff, Victory Home Loans Take #2- "The new Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac go into effect May 1st and what this means for buyers in the market is that getting preapproved with a lender that can help you understand how to leverage your funds in the right way is still your best bet. You’re still in a better position with higher credit and higher down payment so the sooner you start your mortgage journey, the better you can prepare yourself." -Jessica Scolastico, CMG Home Loans I hope this helps you find some clarity. Remember that the headlines you see are designed to generate a reaction so you click for more, and often don't help bring any rational analysis. At the end of the day, the best source for how these changes will impact your individual situation as a home buyer is a mortgage lender. Jennifer Schurter is a real estate agent and expert marketer serving the Greater Portland, Oregon Metro Area and the Willamette Valley of Oregon. If you're looking to start the journey toward buying a home, selling a home, or investing in real estate assets, you may reach Jennifer at jen@jenschurter.com.
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Above & Beyond
The other day I was speaking with a client, and the subject of time came up. I had a busy schedule the follow day, and talked about how I like to go door-to-door around my listings to promote a special "Neighbor's Only" open house. It's a nice way to meet the neighbors and activate a little bit of networking/word of mouth. You never know where your home's buyer is going to come from! He said, "Is that something a lot of Realtors do? I have never heard of it, and I have bought and sold a lot of homes." To be honest, I can't speak to what other agents do. My goal is always to go above and beyond and leave no stone unturned. I love meeting people. I guess if I didn't I am in the absolute wrong line of work. Growing up on a farm, I am no stranger to hard work to get the results you want. And sometimes, the hard work didn't net the result you wanted because there are factors out of your control, like Mother Nature. Fortunately, the forces of nature have limited impact on the real estate market. While I can't perfectly control when the right buyer is going to visit a listing and want to make an offer, I will sure do what I can to uncover every opportunity for the sellers. And that means getting comfortable with being uncomfortable and inviting neighbors to an open house. And yes, I do bribe them with free goodies and coffee. Everyone likes treats.
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