2025 Real Estate Wild Cards: What Could Shake Up the Market?
The 2025 housing market is shaping up to be an interesting one—steady growth, more inventory, and a bit of breathing room for buyers. But let’s be real: behind every steady forecast lies a handful of wild cards that could shift the game. From unexpected mortgage rate swings to federal policies that could either boost supply or throw a wrench in the system, there’s plenty to keep an eye on this year. Let’s break it all down—what the experts predict and what could really shake things up. The Big Picture: What Experts Are Saying About 2025 Before diving into the wild cards, let’s take a look at what the forecasts say about home prices, sales, inventory, and mortgage rates. 1. Home Prices: Modest Increases Ahead Analysts forecast modest home price growth in 2025, with projections ranging from 2% to nearly 5% increase. While home prices are still climbing, the pace is slower compared to recent years. This is good news for buyers facing affordability challenges, although slight increases still favor sellers who can expect equity gains. 2. Home Sales: Slight Rebound in Activity After a sluggish 2023 and 2024, existing home sales are projected to recover slightly in 2025. Higher sales activity signals a healthier market, but the pace will depend on mortgage rates and inventory growth. Sellers may benefit from increased demand, while buyers will appreciate slightly more options. 3. Inventory: A Step Toward Balance Economists agree—we can expect an increase in national housing inventory in the double digits: Inventory is finally improving, giving buyers more options and a bit more negotiating power. However, we’re still not back to pre-pandemic levels, so don’t expect the competition to disappear completely. 4. Mortgage Rates: A Wild Ride Ahead Mortgage rates are the biggest question mark. Most analysts predict rates hovering around 6%, but fluctuations throughout the year could create opportunities for those who act quickly. Buyers can be on the lookout for rate dips to lock in better terms. For sellers, rates might limit what buyers can afford, so pricing smartly will be key. The Wild Cards That Could Shake Things Up Now for unpredictable factors that could throw the market forecasts into disarray. Here’s what you need to keep an eye on, according to Realtor.com. 1. Mortgage Rate Surprises While forecasts suggest mortgage rates will hover around 6%, unexpected factors could lead to volatility. Economic growth, inflationary pressures, and Federal Reserve policy decisions will all play a role in determining where rates go. The Trump administration’s fiscal policies—including deficit-funded tax cuts and increased spending—could drive inflation higher, keeping mortgage rates elevated. Conversely, successful efforts to curb inflation might stabilize rates or lead to a gradual decline. What It Means for You: Buyers: Stay flexible and prepared to lock in a rate during any dips. Sellers: Be ready to adjust your pricing strategy if rates rise and buyer budgets shrink. 2. Federal Housing Policies With a Republican sweep of the presidency and Congress, new policies could either bolster the housing market or add to its challenges. President-elect Trump has proposed initiatives to decrease building costs and increase supply, including opening federal land for homebuilding and reducing regulatory costs. However, other policies—such as stricter immigration laws and increased tariffs—could raise construction costs and slow the progress of new home development. What It Means for You: If supply increases, buyers may see more affordable options, easing competition. However, higher construction costs could offset these benefits, keeping affordability out of reach for many. Real estate is always full of surprises, but that’s what makes it exciting. Want to know how these trends could impact you in the Portland Oregon metro area, Clackamas County, Canby, or your neighborhood? Let’s connect! Schedule a phone call or quick Zoom with me and let's strategize for your 2025 goals.
Read More
6 Things You Need to Know About Upcoming Changes to the Real Estate Industry
A little backstory: Back in March, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) agreed to a settlement deal. The organization agreed to both a monetary settlement as well as real estate practice changes aimed at providing more transparency regarding how real estate agents are paid. But how exactly does that change things for you? There are two main differences you may be hearing about: Offers of compensation for buyer brokers or buyer agents can no longer be made on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). Real estate agents must enter into a written agreement with a homebuyer before giving them a tour of a property. Headlines might make these changes seem overwhelming. And while some of the paperwork is new, the reality is that the majority of professionals in the industry will continue to provide the same service they always have. To help you get a better understanding of what this means for you, here are six key things home buyers and sellers should know about the changes going into effect on August 17, 2024. What Changes Mean For Homebuyers #1—Homebuyer Agreements Your real estate agent needs to have a written agreement signed before they can show you homes. This doesn’t mean you are locked in for life—some agreements can be for one property, some for one week, and some for a longer period of time. Be sure to ask about the different options available when interviewing buyer agents, and make sure you understand exactly what services are included. #2—Know What You're Paying For This agreement will clearly outline your agent's compensation. If the agreement is not specific, or if you have questions, ask for clarification (and get it in writing) before signing anything. And, just like before, agent fees are negotiable. This settlement doesn't change that. #3—Seller Deals Still Exist Sellers can still offer to cover some of your closing costs, and even the buyer agent fees, as an incentive. While you won't see the seller’s offers to buyer agents on the MLS listings anymore, that doesn't mean they're gone. Your agent can find out if the seller is offering buyer agent compensation (or negotiate for it should you decide to make an offer on a property). What Changes Mean For Home Sellers #1—The Power of Choice You’re still in control! You can decide if you want to offer compensation to buyer brokers. When interviewing your listing agent, ask about the pros and cons of offering buyer agent compensation to help you determine what the best option is for your situation. #2—Transparent Terms Your listing agent must obtain your approval before making any offer of payment to buyer brokers. If you choose to offer compensation, the terms must be transparent and made in writing—including how much and how it will be paid. #3—MLS Dos and Don’ts As a seller, you can no longer put offers of buyer broker compensation on the MLS. (This must happen off MLS.) However, you can still offer buyer concessions on the MLS, like buyer closing costs. Final Thoughts These changes are designed to make the process of agent compensation when buying or selling a home more transparent. That being said, there are going to be different options available, so it’s important you take the time to understand them all. By working with a knowledgeable real estate agent, you can ensure that your home buying or selling experience is positive and successful. For more information about these changes, visit facts.realtor or schedule a discovery session with me here.
Read More
Why You Can't Compare Now to the 'Unicorn Years' of the Housing Market
Why You Can’t Compare Now to the ‘Unicorn’ Years of the Housing Market [INFOGRAPHIC] Some Highlights Comparing housing market metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market – and the last few years have been anything but normal. In a way, they were ‘unicorn’ years. Expect unsettling housing market headlines this year, mostly due to unfair comparisons with the ‘unicorn’ years. Let’s connect so I can share the data that puts those headlines in the proper perspective.
Read More
Categories
Recent Posts