Are Oregon's Small Towns Facing a Housing Crash? Let's Look at the Data

Recently, an article made waves by listing 19 Oregon towns purportedly showing signs of a housing crash. While such headlines can be alarming, it's essential to delve deeper and understand the nuances behind the data. Let’s break down the claims and examine what’s really happening in towns like Canby and Silverton.

Understanding the Term "Crash"

First and foremost, the article fails to define what constitutes a "housing crash." Is it a 5% dip in home prices? A sudden drop in buyer demand? A wave of foreclosures? Without clearly defined benchmarks, the term becomes a catch-all — and worse, it creates panic without substance. Real estate markets are naturally cyclical, and smaller towns in particular can show wide swings from just a handful of sales.

 Check the Source: Why Good Data Matters

Before we take any market headline seriously, it’s worth asking: Where is this data coming from?

Credible housing insights should come from:

• Real-time listing data, not just lagging public records.

• Multiple market indicators (price trends, days on market, inventory, buyer activity) — not just one index with a vague name.

• Clear methodology — if you can't tell how the data was calculated, it’s probably not trustworthy.

In this case, the article doesn’t cite any reputable economists, local experts, or established housing reports. It just references a mysterious “housing index” without defining how that index is built, where the numbers come from, or what they actually mean. That’s a red flag.

Compare that to tools like:

• Altos Research, which tracks real-time market activity using active listing data, including Market Action Index (MAI), pricing trends, and inventory movement.

• Redfin, which combines MLS data with internal buyer activity for more complete insights.

• Rocket Homes, which offers side-by-side comparisons of price trends, days on market, and market balance across zip codes and towns.

These sources don’t rely on speculation or click-driven headlines — they provide live market snapshots that professionals use every day to guide buyers and sellers.

Canby: A Market Holding Steady

As of June 24, 2025, Altos Research reports:

• Median list price: $694,900

• Market Action Index (MAI): 45 — a strong seller's market

• Inventory: Holding steady

• Homes selling quickly and close to asking

Rocket Homes shows a median sold price of $619,900 in May 2025, up 1.2% from the previous year, with average days on market slightly improved at 59 days. (source)

Silverton: Experiencing a Market Adjustment

Silverton is seeing more of a market normalization than a downturn:

• Redfin reports a May 2025 median sale price of $522,000, down 8.6% YoY — but homes are selling faster, with days on market dropping from 43 to 30. (source)

• Rocket Homes shows similar trends: median list price at $574,500, with more homes selling and a slightly larger inventory. (source)

The takeaway? The market is adjusting after a few overheated years — not crashing.

Real Estate is Local — Headlines Aren’t

The truth is, most small towns don’t follow the same playbook as larger metros. They aren’t overbuilt, they don’t rely on speculative investors, and their pricing swings are often more about volume than volatility. In markets like Canby and Silverton, where lifestyle appeal, limited inventory, and local roots run deep, the fundamentals remain steady — even if prices flex a bit.

Final Thoughts

Don’t let broad headlines shape your understanding of your neighborhood. If you're hearing talk about housing crashes, let’s have a real conversation about what the numbers actually show — locally, with context.

If you'd like to know how your home's value is holding up (or where the best buying opportunities might be), I’m always happy to walk through the current data and trends.

—
Jennifer Schurter

Serving Canby, Clackamas County & the North Willamette Valley
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