Should We Expect a 30% DROP In The Market?!
Question: I'm thinking about buying or selling and I'm hearing we should expect a 20-30% drop in the market. Is that going to happen? If you're like most people, you have seen lots of information being tossed about in the media about what's happening in the real estate market. Shocking headlines are meant to generate clicks and site visits, not necessarily to offer a complete explanation. I'd rather clarify the situation than terrify. To clear this up, let's take a look at one piece of the puzzle today: inventory of available homes to buy in the US. First, here are two definitions to know: Active: homes that are currently on the market and do not have an accepted offer. Pending: homes that are under contract (have an accepted offer, working toward closing). According to NAR (National Association of Realtors), there are 970,000 units (properties) on the market now. To see a chart, please click here. Historically speaking, this is a very small amount of homes for sale, especially when compared to 2008 (have a look at where inventory was then! Holy smokes!). However, if we take away homes that are under contract/pending, Altos reports that it's more like 456,990 homes available NATIONWIDE. While not the lowest level we have seen in the past year, this number is nowhere near where we'd need to be to start to see massive price decreases on a broad scale. That's not to say that in some markets we don't see these decreases to some extent, because real estate is hyper local and flows with what is happening in those areas specifically. The rules of supply and demand economics (less available+lots of demand=$ increase) mean that we will continue to see pressure on pricing. NAR estimates that we are 4 Million units short in housing inventory! If we take inventory as one piece of the equation, it certainly doesn't seem like we can expect broad scale market decreases. If you're selling: my suggestion is to make your home as presentable as possible. Buyers are savvier than in past years. Paying higher interest rates means buyers are more selective in what they buy today. If you're buying: be prepared for demand on nicer homes that are well cared for, especially in those lower price points (in Oregon, under $500K). We may see a return to multiple offer situations like we saw in Winter 2022. Is it a similar feel? Yes, but not nearly as bananas. Want to know what is happening in YOUR backyard? Connect with me, Jennifer Schurter. I am a Portland Metro Area Realtor and I would be happy to walk you through what's going on on and how these trends affect you locally.
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Why There Won't Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market
Why There Won’t Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market With the rapid shift that’s happened in the housing market this year, some people are raising concerns that we’re destined for a repeat of the crash we saw in 2008. But in truth, there are many key differences between what’s happening today and the bubble in the early 2000s. One of the reasons this isn’t like the last time is the number of foreclosures in the market is much lower now. Here’s a look at why there won’t be a wave of foreclosures flooding the market. Not as Many Homeowners Are in Trouble This Time After the last housing crash, over nine million households lost their homes due to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. This was, in large part, because of more relaxed lending standards where people could take out mortgages they ultimately couldn’t afford. Those lending practices led to a wave of distressed properties which made their way into the market and caused home values to plummet. But today, revised lending standards have led to more qualified buyers. As a result, there are fewer homeowners who are behind on their mortgages. As Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says: “For the second quarter in a row, the mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979 – declining to 3.45%. Foreclosure starts and loans in the process of foreclosure also dropped in the third quarter to levels further below their historical averages.” There Have Been Fewer Foreclosures over the Last Two Years While you may have seen recent stories about the number of foreclosures rising today, context is important. During the pandemic, many homeowners were able to pause their mortgage payments using the forbearance program. The program gave homeowners facing difficulties extra time to get their finances in order and, in many cases, work out a plan with their lender. With that program, many were concerned it would result in a wave of foreclosures coming to the market. That fear didn’t materialize. Data from the New York Fed shows there are still fewer foreclosures happening today than before the pandemic (see graph below): That means, while there are more foreclosures now compared to last year (when foreclosures were paused), the number is still well below what the housing market has seen in a more typical year, like 2017-2019. And most importantly, the number we’re seeing now is still far below the number we saw during the market crash (shown in the red bars in the graph). The big takeaway? Don’t let a headline in the news mislead you. While foreclosures are up year-over-year, historical context is essential to understanding the full picture. Most Homeowners Have More Than Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes Many homeowners today have enough equity to sell their homes instead of facing foreclosure. Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. And if they’ve stayed in their homes even longer, they may have even more equity than they realize. As Ksenia Potapov, Economist at First American, says: “Homeowners have very high levels of tappable home equity today, providing a cushion to withstand potential price declines, but also preventing housing distress from turning into a foreclosure. . . the result will likely be more of a foreclosure ‘trickle’ than a ‘tsunami.’” A recent report from ATTOM Data explains it by going even deeper into the numbers: “Only about 214,800 homeowners were facing possible foreclosure in the second quarter of 2022, or just four-tenths of one percent of the 58.2 million outstanding mortgages in the U.S. Of those facing foreclosure, about 195,400, or 91 percent, had at least some equity built up in their homes.” Bottom Line If you see headlines about the increasing number of foreclosures today, remember context is important. While it’s true the number of foreclosures is higher now than it was last year, foreclosures are still well below pre-pandemic years. If you have questions, Jennifer Schurter, a Realtor in the Portland, Oregon metro area, is happy to answer them!
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Your House Could Be the #1 Item on a Homebuyer's Wish List During the Holidays
Your House Could Be the #1 Item on a Homebuyer’s Wish List During the Holidays Each year, homeowners planning to make a move are faced with a decision: sell their house during the holidays or wait. And others who have already listed their homes may think about removing their listings and waiting until the new year to go back on the market. The truth is many buyers want to purchase a home for the holidays, and your house might be just what they’re looking for. Here are five great reasons you shouldn’t wait to sell your house. 1. While the supply of homes for sale has increased this year, there still aren’t enough homes on the market to keep up with buyer demand. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist & Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains: “There’s still this gap between demand and supply because we were underbuilding for many years. . . . So now we see demand is slowing, but it still outpaces supply.” 2. Serious homebuyers are out looking right now. Millennials are driving homebuying demand today, and many are eager to make a purchase. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains: "While not the frenzy of 2021, the largest living generation, the Millennials, will continue to age into their prime home-buying years, creating a demographic tailwind for the housing market.” 3. The desire to own a home doesn’t stop during the holidays. In fact, homes decorated for the holidays appeal to many buyers. Plus, purchasers who look for homes during the holidays are ready to buy. 4. You can restrict the showings in your house to days and times that are most convenient for you. That can help you minimize disruptions, which is especially important this time of year. 5. Rents have skyrocketed in recent years. And, many buyers are looking to escape rising rents and avoid falling into the rental trap for another year. As an article from Zillow says: “Over the next 12 months, rents are expected to grow more than inflation, the stock market and home values." Your home could be their ticket to leaving renting behind for good. Bottom Line There are still many reasons it makes sense to list your house during the holiday season. Connect with Jennifer Schurter, a Realtor in the Portland, Oregon metro area, today to determine if selling now is your best move.
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