Are Home Sales Finally Making a Comeback?
For the first time in over three years, existing home sales increased year over year, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in October. So, what exactly does this mean? So glad you asked! Even though 2024 is shaping up to have the fewest home sales on record, the rise in sales this October could be a sign that the housing market is starting to recover. After a long stretch of slowing home sales, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows three main trends that are worth paying attention to: More homes are selling, and prices are still rising. Homeowners are seeing their equity grow as prices climb. There’s more inventory to choose from. For buyers, the market is offering a bit more breathing room as the number of available homes rises. Buyers are starting to come back. The year-over-year sales increase shows that demand is picking up, even with mortgage rates higher than in years past. For homeowners, this means rising equity and an opportunity to sell at peak prices. For buyers, the growing inventory could finally offer a wider selection of homes to choose from. Below, we’ll break down what’s behind the numbers, explore how rising prices and inventory are shaping the market, and share actionable insights for homeowners looking to take advantage of these trends. 1. More Homes Are Selling, and Prices Are Still Rising Homeowners, this one’s for you: the value of your home is likely continuing to grow. In October, the median existing-home price rose to $407,200—a 4% increase compared to last year. That’s the 16th straight month of year-over-year price growth. Here in the greater Portland, Oregon metro area, the median home price was $535,000 in November of 2024, a 1.4% increase year over year. While inventory remains low and time on market is also going up (we're at 64 days from 55 days in November 2023), prices remain stable. Here in the Portland metro area, you would assume that prices may go down given how long it's taking for homes to sell. We're just not seeing that. For many sellers, this means a chance to cash in on rising equity. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, summed it up perfectly: “The ongoing price gains mean increasing wealth for homeowners nationwide.” Yun also expects home prices to continue rising over the next two years, predicting a 9% YoY increase in 2025 and a 13% YoY increase in 2026. 2. There’s More Inventory to Choose From For the past few years, buyers have faced limited options in the housing market. But that’s starting to change. The inventory of unsold homes rose 19% nationwide compared to last year, giving buyers more options than they’ve had in a while. Locally, the Portland, Oregon metro area saw a 0.5% decrease in housing inventory in November 2024 over November 2023. This growing inventory means two things: For sellers: More competition. Preparing your home to stand out—through staging, pricing it competitively, and marketing—will be key. For buyers: A bit more choice and less pressure to bid on the first home you see. If you’ve been waiting for the market to offer more balance, this could be the sign you’ve been waiting for. 3. Buyers Are Starting to Come Back NAR’s report shows that home sales are up year over year—the first time we’ve seen this since July 2021. Even with elevated mortgage rates, buyers are finding ways to re-enter the market, driven by job stability and growing economic confidence. While mortgage rates are still hovering around 6.78% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, they’ve stabilized. And Yun predicts they could dip into the lower 6% range in 2025. This demand is creating a sweet spot for motivated sellers: buyers are ready, inventory is growing, and prices are holding steady. Final Thoughts If you’ve been considering selling, now may be a great time to act. With prices still rising and demand picking up, listing your home soon could help you attract serious buyers and secure a strong return. Just keep in mind that more inventory means your home needs to shine. Staging, high-quality photos, and competitive pricing are more important than ever. For buyers, the good news is that you have more choices. The rising inventory is making it easier to find homes that fit your needs and budget. While mortgage rates are still higher than a few years ago, they’re stabilizing. If you’re ready to buy, the best strategy is to get pre-approved, understand your budget, and stay patient while exploring your options. For those looking for more personalized insights, I’m happy to help. Connect with me here for a discovery call, and we can start exploring your options.
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2025 Real Estate Wild Cards: What Could Shake Up the Market?
The 2025 housing market is shaping up to be an interesting one—steady growth, more inventory, and a bit of breathing room for buyers. But let’s be real: behind every steady forecast lies a handful of wild cards that could shift the game. From unexpected mortgage rate swings to federal policies that could either boost supply or throw a wrench in the system, there’s plenty to keep an eye on this year. Let’s break it all down—what the experts predict and what could really shake things up. The Big Picture: What Experts Are Saying About 2025 Before diving into the wild cards, let’s take a look at what the forecasts say about home prices, sales, inventory, and mortgage rates. 1. Home Prices: Modest Increases Ahead Analysts forecast modest home price growth in 2025, with projections ranging from 2% to nearly 5% increase. While home prices are still climbing, the pace is slower compared to recent years. This is good news for buyers facing affordability challenges, although slight increases still favor sellers who can expect equity gains. 2. Home Sales: Slight Rebound in Activity After a sluggish 2023 and 2024, existing home sales are projected to recover slightly in 2025. Higher sales activity signals a healthier market, but the pace will depend on mortgage rates and inventory growth. Sellers may benefit from increased demand, while buyers will appreciate slightly more options. 3. Inventory: A Step Toward Balance Economists agree—we can expect an increase in national housing inventory in the double digits: Inventory is finally improving, giving buyers more options and a bit more negotiating power. However, we’re still not back to pre-pandemic levels, so don’t expect the competition to disappear completely. 4. Mortgage Rates: A Wild Ride Ahead Mortgage rates are the biggest question mark. Most analysts predict rates hovering around 6%, but fluctuations throughout the year could create opportunities for those who act quickly. Buyers can be on the lookout for rate dips to lock in better terms. For sellers, rates might limit what buyers can afford, so pricing smartly will be key. The Wild Cards That Could Shake Things Up Now for unpredictable factors that could throw the market forecasts into disarray. Here’s what you need to keep an eye on, according to Realtor.com. 1. Mortgage Rate Surprises While forecasts suggest mortgage rates will hover around 6%, unexpected factors could lead to volatility. Economic growth, inflationary pressures, and Federal Reserve policy decisions will all play a role in determining where rates go. The Trump administration’s fiscal policies—including deficit-funded tax cuts and increased spending—could drive inflation higher, keeping mortgage rates elevated. Conversely, successful efforts to curb inflation might stabilize rates or lead to a gradual decline. What It Means for You: Buyers: Stay flexible and prepared to lock in a rate during any dips. Sellers: Be ready to adjust your pricing strategy if rates rise and buyer budgets shrink. 2. Federal Housing Policies With a Republican sweep of the presidency and Congress, new policies could either bolster the housing market or add to its challenges. President-elect Trump has proposed initiatives to decrease building costs and increase supply, including opening federal land for homebuilding and reducing regulatory costs. However, other policies—such as stricter immigration laws and increased tariffs—could raise construction costs and slow the progress of new home development. What It Means for You: If supply increases, buyers may see more affordable options, easing competition. However, higher construction costs could offset these benefits, keeping affordability out of reach for many. Real estate is always full of surprises, but that’s what makes it exciting. Want to know how these trends could impact you in the Portland Oregon metro area, Clackamas County, Canby, or your neighborhood? Let’s connect! Schedule a phone call or quick Zoom with me and let's strategize for your 2025 goals.
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Why You Can't Compare Now to the 'Unicorn Years' of the Housing Market
Why You Can’t Compare Now to the ‘Unicorn’ Years of the Housing Market [INFOGRAPHIC] Some Highlights Comparing housing market metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market – and the last few years have been anything but normal. In a way, they were ‘unicorn’ years. Expect unsettling housing market headlines this year, mostly due to unfair comparisons with the ‘unicorn’ years. Let’s connect so I can share the data that puts those headlines in the proper perspective.
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